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中国物价上涨  

2008-05-23 09:09:34|  分类: 外语学习 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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 Fear that China will push up world inflation

中国物价上涨7%引发全球通胀之恐惧
 
      昨天,当北京公布了11年以来幅度最大的居民消费价格上涨时,中国的通货膨胀波及其他国家的担忧进一步加深。
 
      随着过年时期雪灾带来的食品价格的飞涨,上个月这个全球经济发展最快的国家年通货膨胀率达到了7.1%。2008年1月的雪灾导致七百万公顷耕地荒芜和全国范围内物流系统的瘫痪,致使食品价格上涨了18%。
 
      为了缓解供给不足的局面,北京方面已经发放了粮食储备,但此举仍未能抑制物价的飞速上涨。其实在雪灾之前,中国的通货膨胀率从2007年一月的2.2%一直在逐步的增长。分析师们预测在接下来的几个月中物价将有可能进一步上涨,给当局采取紧缩经济政策施加了压力。
 
      德意志银行声称在第一季度中国的通货膨胀指数将会达到8%之高,而雷曼兄弟则预测价格上涨在二月份会达到7.5%,在三月份达到高峰。
 
      英荷银行的经济学家史蒂芬?路易斯称,显然物价上涨将会从食品扩展到其他经济领域,而这些产品价格的上涨将波及从中国进口货物的国家。他表示:"现在大家普遍认为中国在过去十年左右国际贸易水平的扩展,抑制了进口中国产品国家的通货膨胀。而目前的担忧是中国国内的通货膨胀会逐渐在其出口产品的价格上显现出来。简而言之,中国会把自己的通货膨胀‘出口'给世界其他国家。"
 
      在过去的15年中,中国生产的廉价商品被看作是抑制全球通货膨胀的重要因素,但是为了维持经济每年以10%的速度增长,商品价格上涨已经在所难免。劳动力的短缺和新兴财富群体的出现也抬高食品和出口产品的价格。
 
      高通胀率可能使中国政府在应对经济过热方面的工作面临更多更复杂的困难,并对加速人民币升值带来了更大压力。中国经济2007年增长了11.4%,估计今年至少会增长9%。飞涨的物价对中国领导人来说也是一个政治隐患,因为它会使得在食品上面花费一半收入的贫困家庭生活举步维艰。 80年代和90年代的几轮通货膨胀都曾引发民众抗议。
 
Fears that China may export inflation to the rest of the world were heightened yesterday when Beijing announced the sharpest rise in the cost of living in 11 years.
 
With food prices rising rapidly following severe new year storms, the annual inflation rate in the fast-growing developing economy reached 7.1% last month.
 
Food prices were up 18% on January 2007 as blizzards took 7m hectares of agricultural land out of production and paralysed distribution systems across China.
 
Beijing released food stocks to ease shortages but was unable to prevent prices from rising sharply. Even before the storms, inflation was steadily increasing in China, up from 2.2% in January 2007. Analysts said further increases were likely over the coming months, putting pressure on the authorities to tighten economic policy.
 
Deutsche Bank said inflation could hit a peak of 8% for the first quarter, while Lehman Brothers forecast price rises of up to 7.5% in February before the surge ended in March.
 
Stephen Lewis, economist at Insinger de Beaufort, said there were clear signs that price rises were spreading from food to the rest of the economy, and that this had implications for countries that import Chinese goods. "It is now received wisdom that, over the past decade or so, the expansion of China's international trade acted as a disinflationary influence in importing countries," he said.
 
"The fear now is that a faster rate of Chinese domestic inflation will be reflected in an upturn in the prices of goods China sells abroad. In short, China will export its inflation to the rest of the world."
 
Cheap manufactured goods from China have been see as a significant factor in holding down global inflation over the past 15 years, but the need to power an economy growing at 10% a year has led to rising commodity prices. Labour shortages and the demands of a richer population have also led to dearer food and exported goods.
 
High inflation could complicate Beijing's efforts to keep the fast-growing economy from overheating and add to pressure to let the exchange rate of its currency, the yuan, rise faster. China's economy grew by 11.4% in 2007 and is expected to expand by at least 9% this year.
 
Surging food costs are a political concern for Chinese leaders because they hit the poor majority hard in a society where families spend up to half their incomes on food. Bouts of high inflation in the 1980s and 1990s led to protests

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